The Goldwatcher

$2000 dollar gold?

The conclusion that gold in the range of $1000 to  $1100 makes sense is well supported by: 

 1: Renewed central bank interest evidenced by The Central Bank of India’s  $6.7 billion purchase of 200 tons of gold from the IMF at $1045 per ounce  announced two days ago ; and

2: Background analysis in The Goldwatcher on when gold prices make sense and when they don’t . 

Pundits are now beating the goldrush drum with talk of prices on course to $2000, $3000 and even $5000. At present, in my opinion, these predictions don’t make sense.  Conditions will change as will expectations for gold and other currency prices.  But, while the world still faces deflation,  further dramatic price rises can’t be expected  without a catalyst for change,    

The recovering world economy:

I advanced the case in The Goldwatcher for drawing a line between the pre 9/11 and post 9/11 worlds. Now we have to draw another line between the world as it was in September 2008 when the global economy was about to plunge into the depths, as illustrated in the above Time cover,  and the world as it is now with clear signs of  recovery in some important economies.  However,  though generally showing signs of growth,  many economies are still in emergency care and won’t survive without financial life support.  In this delicate state investors need continuous advice on currencies and I don’t give investment advice. Further investors in different parts of the world will also need advice specific to their needs.   Here are some accessible information sources I rely on:

1: Kitco for live reports with charts on gold prices and analysis differentiating the extent to which price movements are attributable to $ movements and investor activity;

 2: Dr Marc Faber’s Gloom Doom and Boom report with astute comment from the perspective of a gold expert and icon contrarian investor; 

3: Sharefin’s extraordinary chart resource and regular news postings;

4:  Link deleted 10th August 2010

 5: The Bullion Buzz for well selected contributions supporting the case for gold;

6: IHS Global Insight’s Economic Outlook -  a superb resource that takes the pulse of the most important factor in the global economic equation - the US economy. Working outside the investing bank community Global Insight are free of hype.  As independent economists they are consistently rated among the world’s most prescient forecasters across the spectrum of key economies and industries;

7: Nouriel Roubini’s RGE Monitor . The gold standard macro economic commentary for those who can afford the price;

8:  Kitco Casey : the immaginative and sound resource for speculative investors focusing on the big picture and rewarding opportunities; and

9: The Goldwatcher Webliography  listing of publications contributing essential regular information and analysis.(Page 322) 

Goldwatcher commentary:

I will comment on catalysts for change and key developments affecting gold from time to time. To be kept advised on future postings to this blog,  or other contributions I make,  e-mail me:  johnnkatz@gmail.com

Note added 16th December : There appears to be a glitch with the forwarding of e-mails addressed to me at The Goldwatcher. Any message not acknowledged has not been received. I apologise for this and will respond to any messages not acknowledged if they are re-sent to me at the above address. Thank you for reading The Goldwatcher and good luck with your investments.

* Added 9th November 2009 : Video interview with Jon Nadler, Kitco, on bear market in the $ rather than bull market in gold>

* Added 11th November : Street.com interview with Jon Nadler, Kitco 

 

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